Now updated with new research and even more intuitive
explanations, a demystifying explanation of how managers can inform
themselves to make less risky, more profitable business decisions
This insightful and eloquent book will show you how to measure
those things in your own business that, until now, you may have
considered "immeasurable," including customer satisfaction,
organizational flexibility, technology risk, and technology ROI.
Adds even more intuitive explanations of powerful measurement
methods and shows how they can be applied to areas such as risk
management and customer satisfaction Continues to boldly assert
that any perception of "immeasurability" is based on certain
popular misconceptions about measurement and measurement methods
Shows the common reasoning for calling something immeasurable, and
sets out to correct those ideas Offers practical methods for
measuring a variety of "intangibles" Adds recent research,
especially in regards to methods that seem like measurement, but
are in fact a kind of "placebo effect" for management - and
explains how to tell effective methods from management mythology
Written by recognized expert Douglas Hubbard-creator of Applied
Information Economics-"How to Measure Anything, Second Edition"
illustrates how the author has used his approach across various
industries and how any problem, no matter how difficult, ill
defined, or uncertain can lend itself to measurement using proven
methods.
關於作者：
DOUGLAS W. HUBBARD is the inventor of Applied Information
Economics AIE, a measurement methodology that has been used in IT
portfolios, entertainment media, military logistics, RD
portfolios, and many more areas where big decisions are based on
factors that seem difficult or impossible to measure. He is an
internationally recognized expert in metrics, decision analysis,
and risk management, and is a popular speaker at numerous
conferences. He has written articles for InformationWeek, CIO
Enterprise, Architecture Boston, Analytics and ORMS Today and is
also the author of The Failure of Risk Management: Why It''s Broken
and How to Fix It.
目錄：
Preface xi Acknowledgments xv SECTION I MEASUREMENT: THE
SOLUTION EXISTS 1 CHAPTER 1 Intangibles and the Challenge 3 Yes, I
Mean Anything 5 The Proposal 6 CHAPTER 2 An Intuitive Measurement
Habit: Eratosthenes, Enrico, and Emily 9 How an Ancient Greek
Measured the Size of Earth 10 Estimating: Be Like Fermi 11
Experiments: Not Just for Adults 13 Notes on What to Learn from
Eratosthenes, Enrico, and Emily 18 CHAPTER 3 The Illusion of
Intangibles: Why Immeasurables Aren''t 21 The Concept of Measurement
22 The Object of Measurement 26 The Methods of Measurement 28
Economic Objections to Measurement 35 The Broader Objection to the
Usefulness of "Statistics" 37 Ethical Objections to Measurement 39
Toward a Universal Approach to Measurement 41 SECTION II BEFORE YOU
MEASURE 45 CHAPTER 4 Clarifying the Measurement Problem 47 Getting
the Language Right: What "Uncertainty" and "Risk" Really Mean 49
Examples of Clarification: Lessons for Business from, of All
Places, Government 51 CHAPTER 5 Calibrated Estimates: How Much Do
You Know Now ? 57 Calibration Exercise 59 Further Improvements on
Calibration 64 Conceptual Obstacles to Calibration 65 The Effects
of Calibration 71 CHAPTER 6 Measuring Risk through Modeling 79 How
Not to Measure Risk 79 Real Risk Analysis: The Monte Carlo 81 An
Example of the Monte Carlo Method and Risk 82 Tools and Other
Resources for Monte Carlo Simulations 91 The Risk Paradox and the
Need for Better Risk Analysis 93 CHAPTER 7 Measuring the Value of
Information 99 The Chance of Being Wrong and the Cost of Being
Wrong: Expected Opportunity Loss 100 The Value of Information for
Ranges 103 The Imperfect World: The Value of Partial Uncertainty
Reduction 107 The Epiphany Equation: How the Value of Information
Changes Everything 110 Summarizing Uncertainty, Risk, and
Information Value: The First Measurements 114 SECTION III
MEASUREMENT METHODS 117 CHAPTER 8 The Transition: From What to
Measure to How to Measure 119 Tools of Observation: Introduction to
the Instrument of Measurement 120 Decomposition 124 Secondary
Research: Assuming You Weren''t the First to Measure It 127 The
Basic Methods of Observation: If One Doesn''t Work, Try the Next 128
Measure Just Enough 131 Consider the Error 132 Choose and Design
the Instrument 136 CHAPTER 9 Sampling Reality: How Observing Some
Things Tells Us about All Things 139 Building an Intuition for
Random Sampling: The Jelly Bean Example 141 A Little about Little
Samples: A Beer Brewer''s Approach 142 Statistical Significance: A
Matter of Degree 145 When Outliers Matter Most 148 The Easiest
Sample Statistics Ever 150 A Biased Sample of Sampling Methods 153
Measure to the Threshold 162 Experiment 165 Seeing Relationships in
the Data: An Introduction to Regression Modeling 169 One Thing We
Haven''t Discussed-and Why 174 CHAPTER 10 Bayes: Adding to What You
Know Now 177 Simple Bayesian Statistics 178 Using Your Natural
Bayesian Instinct 181 Heterogeneous Benchmarking: A "Brand Damage"
Application 187 Bayesian Inversion for Ranges: An Overview 190
Bayesian Inversion for Ranges: The Details 193 The Lessons of Bayes
196 SECTION IV BEYOND THE BASICS 201 CHAPTER 11 Preference and
Attitudes: The Softer Side of Measurement 203 Observing Opinions,
Values, and the Pursuit of Happiness 203 A Willingness to Pay:
Measuring Value via Trade-offs 207 Putting It All on the Line:
Quantifying Risk Tolerance 211 Quantifying Subjective Trade-offs:
Dealing with Multiple Conflicting Preferences 214 Keeping the Big
Picture in Mind: Profit Maximization versus Purely Subjective
Trade-offs 218 CHAPTER 12 The Ultimate Measurement Instrument:
Human Judges 221 Homo absurdus : The Weird Reasons behind Our
Decisions 222 Getting Organized: A Performance Evaluation Example
227 Surprisingly Simple Linear Models 228 How to Standardize Any
Evaluation: Rasch Models 230 Removing Human Inconsistency: The Lens
Model 234 Panacea or Placebo?: Questionable Methods of Measurement
238 Comparing the Methods 246 CHAPTER 13 New Measurement
Instruments for Management 251 The Twenty-First-Century Tracker:
Keeping Tabs with Technology 251 Measuring the World: The Internet
as an Instrument 254 Prediction Markets: A Dynamic Aggregation of
Opinions 257 CHAPTER 14 A Universal Measurement Method: Applied
Information Economics 265 Bringing the Pieces Together 266 Case:
The Value of the System that Monitors Your Drinking Water 270 Case:
Forecasting Fuel for the Marine Corps 275 Ideas for Getting
Started: A Few Final Examples 281 Summarizing the Philosophy 287
APPENDIX Calibration Tests and Their Answers 289 Index 299
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